Download PDF Time Series Data Analysis Using EViews By I Gusti Ngurah Agung

Sinopsis 

Time series data, growth, or change over time can be observed and recorded in all their biological and nonbiological aspects. Therefore, the method of time series data analysis should be applicable not only for financial economics but also for solving all biological and nonbiological growth problems. Today, the availability of statistical package programs has made it easier for each researcher to easily apply any statistical model, based on all types of data sets, such as cross-section, time series, cross-section over time and panel data. This book introduces and discusses time series data analysis, and represents the first book of a series dealing with data analysis using EViews.

After more than 25 years of teaching applied statistical methods and advising graduate students on their theses and dissertations, I have found that many students still have difficulties in doing data analysis, specifically in defining and evaluating alternative acceptable models, in theoretical or substantial and statistical senses. Using time series data, this book presents many types of linear models from a large or perhaps an infinite number of possible models (see Agung, 1999a, 2007). This book also offers notes on how to modify and extend each model. Hence, all illustrative models and examples presented in this book will provide a useful additional guide and basic knowledge to the users, specifically to students, in doing data analysis for their scientific research papers.

It has been recognized that EViews is an excellent interactive program, which provides an excellent tool for us to use to do the best detailed data analyses, particularly in developing and evaluating models, in doing residual analysis and in testing various hypothesis, either univariate or multivariate hypotheses. However, it has also been recognized that for selected statistical data analyses, other statistical package programs should be used, such as SPSS, SAS, STATA, AMOS, LISREL and DEA.

Even though it is easy to obtain the statistical output from a data set, we should always be aware that we never know exactly the true value of any parameter of the corresponding population or even the true population model. A population model is defined as the model that is assumed or defined by a researcher to be valid for the corresponding population. It should be remembered that it is not possible to represent what really happens in the population, even though a large number of variables are used. Furthermore, it is suggested that a person’s best knowledge and experience should be used in defining several alternative models, not only one model, because we can never obtain the best model out of all possible models, in a statistical sense.

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